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No More Consoles in Four Years? The Numbers Say Otherwise

The claim that consoles are dying isn't backed up. Switch 2 is selling, and Microsoft and Sony are building the next generation. It is arriving later and costing more, partly because AI demand drives up memory prices.

AI

Translated from the German original with an AI language model, approved by me. Read the original

"In four or five years, consoles will be gone." I hear this a lot, so I looked at the evidence. Short version: nothing supports it. What the evidence does show is that consoles are becoming more PC-like, getting more expensive and arriving later than expected.

Since I posted this on X and in my WhatsApp channel, there has been new reporting on the next Xbox. You'll find it below.

Nintendo: Switch 2 is selling, just more slowly

According to Nintendo's quarterly figures, Switch 2 had shipped 23.68 million units worldwide by June 30, 2026 (Gematsu). The key word is "shipped." That's sell-in, meaning what Nintendo delivered to retailers. How many units actually reached customers (sell-through) only retailers know. VGChartz estimates about 21.84 million.

There is a flip side. Hardware sales in the first quarter were down 34.4 percent year over year, and Nintendo expects 16.5 million units for the fiscal year ending March 2027 (Game Developer). That's a normal second year after a very strong launch, not a dying market. The next quarterly results are due in early November.

Microsoft: Project Helix is official, the date isn't

At GDC in March 2026, Microsoft unveiled the next Xbox under the codename Project Helix (Xbox Wire, VGC). It runs on a custom AMD SoC ("system on a chip," with CPU and graphics on one piece of silicon) and is designed to play both Xbox and PC games. Alpha dev kits, meaning early developer hardware, are due to reach studios in 2027 (Gematsu).

New since my post: In October, Pure Xbox relayed a Fortune report saying an Xbox handheld would come first, in late 2027, with Helix itself following in 2028. Internal price projections are said to be well above $1,000 unless Microsoft subsidizes the hardware. Microsoft has confirmed neither the date nor the price. This is a report, not an announcement. Still, it fits the picture of a next generation that's later and pricier. According to Pure Xbox, Xbox leadership is also planning a "family" of devices, some of them built by partners. That doesn't sound like the end of consoles either.

Sony: PS6 in the works, no date

Sony said in May and again in August 2026 that the PS6's launch date and price haven't been decided (Push Square, May, Push Square, August). The company's leadership pointed to the component shortage (TechRadar), especially high memory prices (Insider Gaming). This is where AI comes in. Data centers for generative AI buy huge amounts of memory, and that pushes prices up for everyone else. Console makers end up paying for the AI boom too.

So a 2027 launch for the PS6 and the next Xbox is not confirmed. That date comes from leaks. According to Bloomberg, a delay to 2028 or 2029 is possible (Vice).

The market: growth, but fuzzy numbers

Every market forecast I found projects growth through 2032: IMARC at $59.4 billion (IMARC), Meticulous Research at $67.2 billion (Meticulous), Stratistics at $46.4 billion and SNS at $55.4 billion. Their starting figures contradict each other, though, so treat these numbers only as a rough range. None of them predicts consoles falling to zero.

What is actually shifting: according to Newzoo, PC already brings in more revenue than consoles and is growing faster, at 6.6 percent a year versus 4.4 percent (GameDev.net, ChannelNews). The headlines say "by 2028," while the summaries say PC is already ahead. I haven't seen the original report.

What this means for you

  • If you want a console now, there's no "end" to wait for. PS5, Xbox Series and Switch 2 will be supported for years.
  • If you're waiting for the next generation, plan for 2028 rather than 2027, and for higher prices. There are no official prices. Figures like "$1,000" are speculation.
  • If you're torn between PC and console: the line is blurring. Helix is meant to run PC games, and Xbox features are coming to Windows. Your game library matters more than the box.
  • When you see headlines about sales figures, check whether they mean "shipped" or "sold."

My take: consoles aren't disappearing. They're becoming more PC-like and more expensive, and they're arriving later. Part of that comes from the AI boom.

Sources